基于证据理论的施工中人为过失改错效果的评估方法

ASSESSMENT METHOD OF CORRECTION RATE FOR HUMAN ERROR BASED ON D-S EVIDENCE THEORY

施工期结构中的人为过失普遍存在,已成为结构失效的主要原因,而设计规范不考虑人为过失的影响,工程检查和改错是减少人为过失的唯一手段。该文基于证据理论,提出一种融合专家咨询结果估算人为过失改错效果的方法。针对国内外普遍采用的人为过失的纠正流程,描述了改错率的识别框架和元素,设计了基本信任度的获取方法,通过信息融合,给出改错效果的估计方法。

Human errors in structures are ubiquitous at construction stages and have been identified as the major cause of structural failures. But design codes do not address the effects of human errors. Engineering error detection-correction is an only mean to reduce human errors. Based on D-S evidence theory, a method for estimating the effect of the detection-correction throuth fusion of expert questionnaire consultation results is proposed. Considering a general engineering inspection process adopted in China and other countries, a frame of discernments and subsets of correction rates are described, a method of obtaining basic probability assignment is designed. In terms of the combination of evidences, the assessment method about the rate of correction is developed.