基于系统动力学模型的创新网络技术扩散模拟仿真研究

Simulation of Technology Diffusion of Innovation Network Based on System Dynamics Model

基于系统动力学模型和数值模拟仿真的方法,将外部作用强度、网络规模演化等因素纳入传统技术扩散模型中,构建了动态演化的创新网络技术扩散模型,分析外部影响和网络规模的变化对技术扩散效果的影响。研究结果表明:外部作用强度、内部作用强度与技术扩散速率呈正相关关系;创新网络规模增长率也与技术扩散速率呈正相关关系;企业技术放弃率和创新网络企业退出率则与技术扩散速率之间存在负相关关系。

Based on system dynamics model,this paper incorporates the effect of external environment,internal factors and the evolution of network size into one model,which is analyzed through the numerical simulation.The results show that:(1)the effect of external environment,the internal factors and the diffusion rate of technology positively correlate;(2)so do the growth rate of innovation network scale and the diffusion rate of technology;(3)the abandonment rate of enterprise technology negatively correlates with the exit rate of the enterprises with innovation network and the diffusion rate of technology.