复杂装备研制项目的动态挣值管理与可视化技术

Dynamic EVM and Its Visualization for Complex Equipment Development Projects

为缩短复杂装备研制项目工期,本文考虑项目内部工作项之间的约束关系,建立了以项目工期最短为目标的数学规划模型,并给出该模型的求解算法。由模型采用挣值管理方法进行工期预测,借助相似度矩阵对挣值管理加以改进,从而实现单独预测以及对未开工工作的提前预测,以提高预测结果的准确度及动态性,更能得到管理调整的重点。本文同时提出一种配合动态挣值管理实施的可视化管理技术——"进度-费用四象限分析图",并使用"挣值散度"对该图进行量化以评价复杂项目受控状态。最后,通过案例分析验证了规划模型方法的有效性,并通过计算其挣值散度来评价项目进度的相对符合度。

Aiming at shorten the period of complex projects,we propose a mathematical programming model and its solution algorithm with the multiple constrains between items of complex projects considered.We use Earned Value Management(EVM)to forecast the period of items that are not finished yet.Similarity matrix of the items is introduced to EVM to get the forecast result of every item and unstarted items,which improves the forecast accuracy and realizes a dynamic EVM(DEVM)and the most important,gets the management emphasis.In addition,to make it convenient of DEVM, we propose a technique called Four-quadrant diagram of schedule-cost to visualize the performances of projects.The quantitative index called Earned Value divergence of the diagram could be used to evaluate to what degree the project is controlled.Finally,a case study is provided to illustrate the application perspective of this new model and method.