基于系统动力学的舆论风险形成及干预策略

Formation and Intervention Strategies of Public Opinion Risk Based on System Dynamics

随着Web2.0时代的到来,网络与传统媒体一起成为社会事故及其风险传播的主要途径。在这种媒介化的社会语境下,舆论风险已成为日益突出的社会风险问题,逐渐受到学者的关注和社会的重视。本文从舆论风险的基本概念入手,探讨舆论风险的基本内涵和特点,并分别对传统媒体、网络媒体和网络社区舆论风险的形成和干预路径进行分析。随后,利用系统动力学理论,分析事故风险、社会舆论和政府干预的相互影响关系,构建社会舆论形成及干预的动力学模型,并利用Stella软件对模型进行仿真分析和可视化处理。最后,本文以宁波PX项目为例,对社会舆论的系统动力学模型进行实证分析。

Since the arrival of the Web2.0 era,media and network community has become a key approach to social risk transmission.In this context,public opinion risk is a serious problem nowadays,which attracts much more attention from the whole society.Starting with illustrating the basic concepts,the elements and characteristic of public opinion risk,this paper introduces its formation and intervention route in traditional media,network media and network community.After analyzing the causal relationship among incident risk,public opinion and government intervention,the paper builds the dynamic model of public opinion formation and intervention by using System Dynamics.Besides,STELLA software is also used to realize the simulation and visual analysis of the dynamic model.In the case study section,Ningbo PX Project and its public opinion risk are yisualized and simulated by using the public opinion dynamic model.