风场的相关性对中期冲突探测可靠性的影响

Effect of Wind Field Correlation on the Reliability of Mid-term Conflict Detection

为研究中期冲突探测问题,建立不同高度两机相遇的冲突场景,得到两机相对位置的随机差分方程,对研究区域进行网格离散化后,构造弱收敛于此微分方程的马尔科夫链。在考虑三种不同相关性模型条件下,求解该马尔科夫链,比较得到的未来数十分钟内的冲突概率图,分析相关性对冲突探测结果的影响,不同的相关函数,得到的冲突概率不同。选择合适的相关函数的对于中期冲突探测的可靠性是非常重要的。

An encounter model for two aircraft flying at the different altitudes is introduced to study the mid-term conflict detection problem.The stochastic differential equation of the relative positions of the two aircraft is obtained and a Markov chain that converges weakly to the equation is constructed by discretizing the studying region.The Markov chain is computed under considering three different cases concerning the correlation in the wind fields,comparing the level curves of estimated probability of conflict over tens of minutes,the affection to the probability of conflict from correlation is analyzed;conflict probability is different in different correlation functions.It's important to choose an appropriate correlation function for the reliability of mid-term conflict probes.