电力和天然气补贴对经济及产业结构的影响——基于CGE建模的分析

The Effect of Electricity and Natural Gas Subsidies on Economy and Industrial Structure:An Analysis Based on CGE Model

在考虑外部成本的情况下,首先利用价差法估计了中国2007年电力和天然气的补贴规模,然后在构建的中国经济的CGE模型基础上,定量分析了电力和天然气补贴对宏观经济、产业结构及居民收入福利的影响。结果表明:取消电力和天然气补贴对真实GDP、进出口、就业等宏观经济变量以及部门产出产生了一定的负面影响,其中采掘业、重化工业等电力或天然气消耗较大产业产出下降十分明显;受此影响,居民和企业收入出现下降,由于补贴支出减少,政府收入降低幅度相对较小,但却可以明显降低整个经济的单位GDP电力和天然气消耗,提高资源利用效率,同时使得产业结构合理化和高级化程度增强,产业结构得到优化升级。

Considering the external cost in the process of energy consumption,we apply the price-gap approach to estimate the Chinese electricity and natural gas subsidies in 2007.Then,we analyze the impact of electricity and natural gas subsidies on macroeconomic,industrial structure and resident welfare by means of constructing a computable general equilibrium model.The results indicate that the removing of electricity and natural gas subsidies has an adverse effect on economic growth,employment,and many other indicators.And the output of mining and heavy chemical industry is sharply decreases.Moreover,the income of household and enterprise appear decline because of the negative effects.The decrease of government income is relative small because the decline of expenditure.However,electricity and natural gas consumption per unit of GDP drops down significantly,and resource utilization ratio increases.What's more,the rationalization and optimization of industrial structure is improved.The industrial structure is optimized and upgrading.