复杂产品谈判阶段质量冲突演化模型及均衡解

A New Graphic Model and its Solution for the Quality Conflict Analysis of Complex Product in the Contract Negotiation Stage

提出了一类基于包含时间参数Petri网的冲突分析及演化模型,辅助复杂产品主制造商研究合同谈判过程中质量冲突的未来发展并探寻质量争议可能实现的均衡状态。针对复杂产品个性化定制性强的特征,建立冲突分析的Petri网模型基本框架;设计其生成和演化算法研究参与人不确定偏好下可能达到争议均衡状态及实现路径;探寻冲突分析过程中各状态的稳态概率,判别冲突的长期均衡和短期均衡。以我国某型号商用飞机谈判阶段中机体质量标准的争议问题开展案例研究,验证了之前模型和方法的可行性和有效性。

A novel graphic model,Petri Net for conflict analysis with time parameters(PNCA-t),is proposed for a complex product system in a contract negotiation stage,which can be utilized to assist main manufacturer to predict the quality dispute and its possible equilibrium states.Specifically,a framework combining Petri net and conflict analysis is constructed according to the strong customization of a complex product,and also its developed algorithm is designed.Additionally,referring to personal rationality and metarationality,the possible equilibrium states of a quality conflict is studied,which can be employed to analyze the revolution path.Furthermore,the stability probabilities of states are studied,which can distinguish the long-term and short-term equilibriums.Finally,a case of the quality standard conflict of commercial aircraft is conducted to show the process of the above method,which verifies the practicality and feasibility of the PNCAt model.