土地价格、房地产信贷规模与房价的相互影响与均衡关系

The Interaction between Land Prices,Real Estate Credit Scale and Price and Their Equilibrium

房地产业的发展高度依赖银行信贷支持和土地供应。因此,土地出让政策和房地产信贷规模和房价之间可能存在相互影响的均衡关系。笔者选用从2000年第1季度至2013年第1季度我国房屋销售价格、房地产信贷规模和土地交易价格三个变量的时间序列数据,构造了反应三个变量短期和长期关系的向量误差修正模型,进行脉冲响应分析与方差分解分析,着重探讨了住宅销售价格、房地产信贷规模和土地交易价格三者的互动关系。结论表明:土地价格、银行信贷规模(房地产企业国内贷款余额与购房贷款余额)对住宅价格存在显著的长期稳定的影响。其中,土地价格对房价的影响略高于信贷规模对房价的影响。因此,政府在调控房价中应组合运用的土地政策与信贷政策,有效抑制房价过度波动。

The development of the real estate industry is highly dependent on bank credit and land supply.Therefore,there may be a balanced relationship between land policy and real estate credit scale and price.This paper selects the data on housing sales price,time series data of real estate credit scale and land transaction prices from the first quarter of 2000 to the first quarter of 2013,and constructsa vector error correction model to depict the short-term and long-term relationship among the three variable response through impulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis,which focuses on the interaction between the residential sales price,the size of the real estate credit and land transaction prices.Conclusions show that:the price of land,the size of bank credit(loans outstanding real estate loans of domestic enterprises and home buyers)has a significant long-term stable influence on housing prices,and the influence of the former is greater than that of the latter.Therefore,the government should combine land policy with credit policy to regulate prices to effectively inhibit the excessive price fluctuations.