区域经济增长与电力消费的相关性

An Examination of the Relationship between Economic Growth and Electricity Consumption in Different Regions

以产业结构为标准将我国28个主要省份进行区域划分,利用动态面板误差修正模型,实证分析了不同产业构成下经济增长与电力消费的因果关系。结果表明:从长期来看,我国整体存在电力消费与经济增长的协整关系,而且存在电力消费到经济增长的因果关系。但从短期来看,第二产业增加值占比较高的地区,存在电力消费与经济增长的双向因果关系;而第二产业增加值占比较低的地区,电力消费并不是经济增长的Granger原因,相反经济增长是电力消费的Granger原因。

This paper divides 28 provinces in China into three areas according to industrial structure,then applies dynamic error correction model to investigate the relationships and directions of causality between electricity consumption(ELC)and economic growth(GDP)for each area.The empirical results show that in the long term,there is cointegration relationship between ELC and GDP in the whole country and a unidirectional causality running from ELC to GDP.However,in the short term,there is different relationship between ELC and GDP for different areas.In the high secondary industry share of GDP area,there is the bidirectional causality between ELC and GDP,while there is a unidirectional causality running from GDP to ELC in the low secondary industry share of GDP area.