农业面源污染的测算与防治——以湖南省为例

Pollutant Calculation,Trend Analysis,Management of Agricultural Non-point Pollution:A Case Study of Hunan Province

农业面源污染是中国农业转型发展面临的巨大挑战,其中尤以氮磷流失造成的营养盐污染最为严峻。本文借鉴IPCC对TN流失源估算的分类方式,给出了从化肥源、畜禽源、作物残体源和生活源4个主要贡献源核算TN、TP和COD3类典型面源污染物的方法,并通过建立C-D生产函数和利润函数估计污染性生产要素的投入强度变化趋势。以湖南省为例,测算了2013年农业面源污染物的排放总量、来源比重和等标污染符合,并求解非线性优化问题探讨生产要素投入变化和农业面源污染的发展趋势。文末提出为建设"两型农业",应构建包括公共财政体系、市场调节体系、技术支撑体系、社会参与体系、制度保障体系和行政管理体系的农业面源污染防治体系,并给出相关政策建议。

Agricultural non-point pollution is a great obstacle to impeding agricultural transformation in China.One of the most serious agricultural pollution issues is nutrients pollution caused by nitrogen(N)and phosphorus(P)emissions.Based on classification and calculation methods of total nitrogen(TN)emissions reported by International Panel on Climate Change(IPCC),this paper developed calculation methods of TN emissions,total phosphorus(TP)emissions,and chemical oxygen demand(COD)emissions from chemical fertilizers,animal breeding industry,crop residues and domestic sewage.Thereafter,this paper establishes a C-D production function and a profit function so as to facilitate trend analysis of production factor inputs which affect pollutant emissions.In the case of Hunan Province's agricultural non-point pollution,this paper calculates pollutant emissions,ratios of different pollution sources and the equal standard pollution load of agricultural non-point pollution in 2013.And this paper discusses changes of production factor inputs and agricultural non-point pollution through solving non-linear optimization problems.Finally,it suggestes that agricultural non-point pollution management might need a policy system which involves public financial policies,market regulations,technological supports,social participation mechanisms,institutions and administrative management,and related policy recommendations are given for each sub-sector.