金融发展、空间效应与房地产库存——理论解释与实证检验

Financial Development,Spatial Effects and Real Estate Inventory——Theoretical Explanations and Empirical Tests

利用2004～2016年省际面板数据建立空间面板模型,检验了金融发展规模、金融发展结构和金融发展效率对房地产库存的影响。研究结果表明:近年来,我国房地产市场空间关联效应增强,房地产库存全国范围存在显著正空间自相关。金融发展规模对房地产库存的影响不显著,金融发展结构与金融发展效率都对房地产库存的影响显著。其中,金融发展结构与房地产库存正相关,通过空间溢出效应强化这种相关关系。金融发展效率与房地产库存负相关,通过空间溢出效应弱化了对房地产库存的影响。除此之外,进一步考察了房价和市场化指数对房地产库存的影响,发现房价对房地产库存有显著的抑制作用,市场化指数则对房地产库存有显著的促进作用,并都通过空间溢出效应强化了对房地产库存的影响。

This paper uses the provincial panel data from 2004 to 2016 to establish spatial econometric model to examine the impact of financial development scale, financial development structure and financial development efficiency on real estate inventory. The results are as follows.(1) In recent years, the spatial correlation effect of China’s real estate market has been enhanced, and there is a significant positive spatial autocorrelation in the whole range of real estate inventory.(2) The impact of financial development scale on real estate inventory is not significant, but both financial development structure and financial development efficiency have significant impacts on it, among which there is a positive correlation between financial development structure and real estate inventory, which is strengthened by spatial spillover effect. However, the financial development efficiency is negatively correlated with the real estate inventory, which is weakened by the spatial spillover effect. In addition, we further examin the impacts of housing price and market index on real estate inventory. It is found that housing prices have a significant inhibitory effect on real estate inventory, while the marketization index has a positive impact on real estate inventory;both strengthen the impacts on the real estate inventory through the spatial spillover effect.