不同经济情形下货币政策中介目标传导效应——基于DAG-SVAR模型的实证分析

The Transmission Effects of Intermediate Targets of the Monetary Policy under Different Economic Circumstances——An Empirical Analysis Based on DAG-SVAR Model

基于有向无环图方法分别构建数量型货币政策中介目标(货币供应量、社会融资规模)和价格型货币政策中介目标(利率、汇率)与GDP、CPI的SVAR模型,根据单变量及多变量脉冲响应函数分析在经济平稳发展、经济萧条、通货膨胀不同经济情形下各中介目标对GDP、CPI的影响效应,经实证研究发现不同经济情形下各数量型中介目标和价格型中介目标对经济及物价的调控作用各有偏颇,并以此提出相关建议与对策。

Based on the method of directed acyclic graph, SVAR models which contain the quantitative and price-based intermediate target of monetary policy,GDP and CPI as variables are established. According to the single variable and multivariable impulse response functions, we analyze the effects of intermediary targets on GDP and CPI under three different economic situations, such as stable economic, economic depression and inflation. Through the empirical study, it is found that quantitative and price-based intermediate target have different regulation effects on the economy and price under different economic situations.And the relevant suggestions and countermeasures are put forward.