中国货币政策对收入不平等的区域效应——基于MCSGVAR模型的实证分析

The Regional Effect of China's Monetary Policy on Urban and Rural Residents' Income

采用1978～2017年中国30个省区的年度数据,通过构建混合截面全局自回归(Mixed Cross-Section GVAR)模型,实证研究了货币政策冲击对不同省区城乡居民人均收入的影响。本文的主要贡献在于识别了统一货币政策框架下对各省区城乡居民收入的影响以及影响程度,使得货币政策对收入分配的研究视觉更微观。研究结果显示,货币政策不仅对城乡居民收入有着显著性的影响,同时这种影响效应还存在着区域异质性。扩张性的货币政策拉高了东部地区城镇居民人均可支配收入,却降低了该地区农村居民人均纯收入,同时能提高中部地区城镇居民和农村居民的人均收入,对西部地区城镇居民和农村居民收入产生抑制作用。

This paper,using the annual data of 30 provinces and autonomous regions in China from 1978 to 2017, building the Mixed Cross-Section GVAR model,empirically studies the impacts of monetary policy shocks on the per capita income of urban and rural residents in different provinces and regions. The main contribution of this paper is to identify the influence and degree of influence on the income of urban and rural residents in different provinces and regions under the framework of unified monetary policy and to provide the research vision of monetary policy on income distribution more microscopic. The results show that monetary policy has not only a significant impact on the income of urban and rural residents, but also regional heterogeneity. The expansionary monetary policy has raised the per capita disposable income of urban residents in the eastern region, but reduced the per capita net income of rural residents in the region. At the same time, it can increase the per capita income of urban and rural residents in the central region and inhibit the income of urban and rural residents in the western region.