影子银行的潜在危险对房地产行业的影响分析

Analysis of Influence of the Shadow Banks' Potential Risk on Real Estate Industry

影子银行以交易证券化房地产贷款为主,因此被指为危机元凶之一,存在着较大的潜在危险。影子银行虽是非银行机构,但又确实发挥着事实上的银行功能,在促进中国的房地产行业一时得到蓬勃发展的同时,对房地产的经济影响风险较大。本文研究了影子银行的潜在危险对房地产行业的影响关系模型,得出影子银行的潜在危险对房地产行业具有加大的相关性,影响因子较大。分析得出,为化解风险,需要加强金融监管体系,使得影子银行在监督管理下运行,不能让其超出管控和超越传统银行活动范畴,要提高房地产开发商的准入门槛,在通胀高企,市场利率远远高于官方利率的情况下,要提高对房地产开发商企业的监督和资金走向的管束,促进经济健康发展。

Regarded as one of the main causes of the crisis, there are great potential risks existing in shadow banks which have trading securitized real estate loans as their main business. Being nonbanking institutions, shadow banks play the roll of real banks, together with their promotion effect in China's real estate industry's temporarily booming, they have cast greater risks to real estate economy. Through studying on the influence relation model of shadow banks' potential risks on real estate industry, the article draws the conclusion that the dependency between the potential risks of shadow banks and real estate industry is increasing constantly, and the impact factor is large. Through the analysis we can get that: to defuse the risks,we need to strengthen the financial supervision system to make sure shadow banks' operations are under supervision and management, none of their operations should be out of control and beyond the category of traditional banking activities. Meanwhile we should raise the access threshold for real estate developers, and under the circumstance of high inflation rate and that the market interest rate is much higher than the official interest rates, we need to enhance the supervision against real estate developers' enterprises and the restrain of funds expenditure,so as to promote the healthy development of economy.