广东省农村金融信贷发展与经济增长的关系研究

Research on the Relationship Between the Development of Rural Financial Credit and the Economic Growth in Guangdong Province

【目的】广东省自改革开放以来,农村金融信贷在现代农村发展中地位日渐突出。分析广东省改革开放以来农村金融信贷与经济增长的关系,为广东省未来的农村经济增长提供参考。【方法】运用描述性研究法和文献研究法对当前广东省农村金融信贷以及农村经济的发展现状进行理论和现状分析。基于改革开放以来的数据,将广东省的农村金融信贷从规模、效率与结构3个层面进行具体分解,运用Eviews7.2进行实证分析,对数据进行平稳性检验并进行一定处理以建立Var模型,通过Granger因果检验与脉冲响应图对两者关系进行深入探讨。【结果】农村金融信贷的规模、效率对农村经济的增长影响显著,而结构的作用力显得相对薄弱。长期来看,农村信贷的3个维度都会对农村经济产生一定程度影响。【结论】在政府的引导下,应扩大农村信贷规模,提升农村信贷效率,加强农村信贷后的监督,建立较为完善的担保机制。

[Objective]Since the reform and opening up in Guangdong Province, rural financial credit has become increasingly prominent in modern rural development. This paper analyzed the relationship between rural financial credit and economic growth since the reform and opening up of Guangdong Province in order to provide reference for the future rural economic growth. [Method]This paper analyzed the current situation of rural financial credit and rural economy development in Guangdong Province from the perspectives of theory and present situation with descriptive research method and literature research method. Based on the data since the reform and opening up, this paper analyzed the scale, efficiency and structure of rural financial credit in Guangdong Province, and made an empirical analysis with Eviws7.2. The stationary test of the data was carried out and processed to establish the Var model. The relationship between the two was explored by Granger causality test and the impulse response diagram.[Result]It was found that the scale and efficiency of rural financial credit had a significant impact on the growth of rural economy while the structure had a relatively weak impact on that. In the long run, the three dimensions of rural credit will have certain impact on the rural economy. [Conclusion]Under the guidance of government, we should expand the scale of rural credit, improve the efficiency of rural credit,strengthen supervision upon rural credit and establish a perfect guarantee mechanism.