土地利用总体规划对新增建设用地扩张的管控效果研究——以广西桂平市为例

The Controlling Effects of on Newly-increased Construction Land Expansion under General Land Use Planning——A Case Study of Guiping City, Guangxi

本文从规划目标的一致性与实施有效性两个方面建立模型,运用Arc GIS的空间分析功能和SPSS的Logistic回归分析法,研究桂平市土地利用总体规划对新增建设用地扩张的管控效果。结果为:(1)总体上,规划对新增建设用地扩张的管控效果一般,为部分理想状态。一致性方面,2006—2015年间,规划对新增建设用地扩张的空间管控效果一般,各地类中,新增农村居民点用地的空间一致性最差;有效性方面,规划对新增建设用地扩张的管控大部分有效,且规划允许建设区对新增建设用地扩张的空间引导和限制作用较强,但基本农田保护区对新增建设用地的约束作用未完全发挥。(2)虽然当前桂平市社会经济发展处于"马路经济"阶段,但在节约集约用地政策和规模经济发展的要求与需求下,加快产业园区建设、规模化发展是必然选择,意味着未来经济变量对新增建设用地扩张的驱动力将逐渐减弱,空间区位变量的驱动力将逐渐增强,因此规划实施必须加强空间管控效果。

This paper established model from the consistency of the planning objectives and the effectiveness of implementation, using the spatial analysis function of Arc GIS and the Logistic regression analysis of SPSS to study the controlling effects of general land use planning on newly-increased construction land expansion in Guiping City. The results showed that: 1)As a whole, the controlling effects of planning was general on the expansion of newly-increased construction land, which in the partial ideal state. In terms of consistency, from 2006 to2015, the space controlling effects of planning was general on the newly-increased construction land expansion, the space consistency of newly-increased rural residential land was the worst in the construction land. In terms of effectiveness, planning was most effective on the controlling effects of newly-increased construction land expansion, planning permit construction area has played an important role in space guidance and limitations for newly-increased construction land expansion, but the basic farmland protection area was not fully played a proper role in constraint of newly-increased construction land. 2)Although the current social and economic development is in the 'road economy' stage in Guiping, but under the requirements of economical and intensive land use policy and the development of scale economy,accelerate the construction of industrial parks, large-scale development will an inevitable choice. It means that the driving force of economic variables on the expansion of newly-increased construction land will gradually weaken in the future, driving force of spatial location variables will be gradually increased, it is must to strengthen space controlling effects of the planning implementation.