城市土地集约利用的系统动力学模拟研究——以南京市为例

Study on Systemdynamic Ssimulation of Urban Land Intensive Use:A Case study of Nanjing

在明确城市土地集约利用内涵的基础上,尝试从系统论视角梳理城市土地集约利用的内部结构,以南京市2005～2015年的发展模式作为历史数据,构建了系统动力学模型,并通过系统模型的模拟结果对政策措施进行分析评估。研究表明:(1)构建的系统动力学模型可以很好的模拟南京市城市土地集约利用的系统行为。(2)经济发展政策在提升经济发展水平的同时,也推动了城市土地利用走向"低投入、高产出"的高水平集约模式;用地标准政策一方面确实可以提升城市土地集约利用水平,另一方面使得城市土地利用难以摆脱原来的模式,仍然保持"高投入、高产出"的城市土地集约利用模式;规模控制政策一方面逐步开始提升城市土地集约利用水平,另一方面也使得城市土地利用开始逐渐向着"低投入、高产出"的高水平城市土地集约利用模式转变。

On the basis of defining the connotation of urban land intensive use, try to comb the internal structure of urban land intensive use from the perspective of system theory, based on the development model of Nanjing in 2005~2015, The system dynamics model is constructed,and the policy measures are analyzed and evaluated through the simulation results of the system model. Research shows:(1)Urban land intensive use system is composed of urban economic subsystem, urban social subsystem and urban environment subsystem, and the subsystems are interrelated and correlated, the core of each subsystem interaction is the input and output of production factors. The system dynamics model is constructed on the basis of defining the logical causal relationship and the quantitative relation between the structural elements of the system could be used to simulate the behavior of urban land intensive use in Nanjing.(2)The level of economic development is improving through economic development policy, at the same time, promotes the urban land use to the high level intensive mode of 'low input, high output'. Land use standards on the one hand can really enhance the level of urban land intensive use, on the other hand, the urban land use is difficult to get rid of the original model, still maintain the urban land intensive use mode of 'high input, high output'. The scale control policy on the one hand gradually begin enhancing the level of urban land intensive use, on the other hand, it makes the urban land use gradually change to the high level urban land intensive use mode of 'low input, high output'. The dynamic model of urban land intensive use system is an iterative process, which needs to be explored and perfected in the future learning process.