政府公共品供给影响下的住房价格——居民消费关系研究

Governmental Public Goods Provision on Housing Price and Household Consumption

采用2004-2010省级宏观数据,通过建立房价与政府和居民人力资本支出的Panel VAR模型以及脉冲响应分析,探讨房价、政府公共品供给与居民人力资本支出的关系及其区域异质性。研究发现,从全国水平上来看,短期居民人力资本支出与房价正相关,与政府公共品供给负相关,住房价格上升对于居民消费产生挤压效用;从长期来看,住房价格的增加能够通过人力资本支出的渠道促进居民消费。东中西部地区计算结果与全国层面大体吻合,中部地区的房价和家庭人力资本支出相关性相对明显,短期挤出效应和长期促进效应最为显著。最后就中央政府、地方政府以及市场化企业等不同主体提出了相应建议。

This paper studies the correlation between housing price,public goods provision as well as household human capital expenditure and examines the heterogeneous effect in urban China.Using Panel VAR model and the impulse response analysis with provincial macro data from 2004-2010,we find a significant positive effect of the housing price and a negative effect of governmental public goods provision on household human capital investment,which denote a squeeze effect of housing price on household consumption in the short term.In the long run,increase of housing prices can promote household consumption through human capital investment channels.At the regional level,the middle region shows significant correlations between housing price and household human capital investment, in both short-term squeeze effect and long-term promoting effect.This paper provides political implications from the role of central government,local government,and market driven enterprises.