日本住宅房地产泡沫及其启示——中日对比分析的视角

Japan's Housing Bubble and Its Enlightenments——based on a comparative analysis between China and Japan

随着今年北京等多地新一轮楼市调控政策的密集出台,国内对于住宅房地产泡沫问题的讨论亦愈来愈热。住宅房地产行业在我国经济、民生中具有特殊地位,其平稳发展关乎整个国民经济的稳定和可持续。上世纪80年代发生住宅房地产泡沫前的日本,其经济发展历程和市场特征与中国当前的表现相似,因此,对日本住宅房地产泡沫产生的原因及特征进行剖析,再将中国目前的宏观经济发展状况与以上特征进行比较,认为中国2004至2015年的经济发展情况与日本1980至1991年非常相似。在此基础上,利用数据指标对这两个时期的中、日住宅房地产市场表现及其异同点进行对比,针对日本的教训为我国住宅房地产市场良性发展提出建议。

A new circle of housing market regulation policies issued in Beijing and other cities this year leads to an increasingly heated discussion about China's housing bubble.The residential industry has a special status in China's economy,so its health matters to the stability and sustainability of the national economy.The economic characteristics of Japan in 1980 s,the episode with bubbles in residential market,are similar to current China's.Therefore,this paper analyses in-depth reasons and characteristics of the Japan's housing bubble and compares with the China's current macroeconomic situations,finding that the market performance of China from 2004 to 2015 is comparable to the Japan's from 1980 to 1991.Based on that conclusion,three indicators are used to further compare the similarities and differences between the residential markets in two countries during the comparable episodes.Finally,some enlightenments for China's residential market are given through the lessons of Japan.