货币供给、银行信贷对我国房价变动的影响

Effect of Money Supply, Bank Credit to Housing Price Fluctuation

基于我国2009年1季度-2017年3季度数据,利用E-G两步法、VECM模型、脉冲响应函数和方差分解,从货币政策传递渠道视角实证分析货币供给、银行信贷对我国房价的影响,发现:货币供给、银行信贷及信贷差额流动效应同房价之间存在长期均衡关系,货币供给M1和M2、银行信贷差额流动性效应以及利率增加都会推高房价;经济增长也会抬高房价,但收入水平、通胀环境等对房价影响不显著。因此,应坚持房住不炒,盯住利率的同时还应盯住货币供给等来稳定市场预期,稳定房地产市场。

This paper,using the E-G two step method,VECM model,impulse response function and variance decomposition,from the perspective of the monetary policy transmission channels,using quarterly data of empirical research on the influence of money supply,bank credit to China housing prices,found:There is a long-term equilibriu relationship between the money supply,bank credit and credit balance flow effect with housing prices,monetary policy through the adjustment of monetary supply and the control of bank credit can play the role of stable prices;Eeconomic growth will also raise housing prices,but income level,inflation environment and so on have no significant impact on housing prices.Therefore,the house is not for frying pegged to interest rates,but also pegged to the money supply to stabilize market expectations,stabilize the real estate market.