国外财政收入预测实践与经验借鉴

Practice and Experience of Foreign Financial Revenue Forecast

从已有文献来看,财政收入预测是一个世界性的挑战课题,而且随着经济形势和税收制度的发展变化,还在不断产生新的问题。本文以美国、英国、澳大利亚、荷兰等财政收入预测先行国家为例,深入探究其经验,以期为我国财政收入的预测实践提供有益的借鉴和启示。主要启示如下:一是明确预测主体和监管主体责任;二是完善收入预测机制,提高预测精度;三是构建数据共享机制,保障预测数据来源稳定;四是健全收入预测评价监督体系,确保预测信息公开透明等。

With the development of economy and tax system, the revenue forecast is still a worldwide challenge, which is constantly creating new problems. From the experiences of United States, Britain, Australia and Netherlands, this paper delves into their experiences of revenue forecast and provides useful revelations to our forecast revenue. The main revelations are as follows: First, the regulatory body and the main responsibility of prediction must be clear; Second, to perfect the revenue forecast mechanism, the prediction accuracy should be improved; Third, a data sharing mechanism must be built to ensure a stable source of forecast data; Forth, improve revenue forecast and supervision system as soon as possible to ensure that predictive information disclosure and transparency.