谁更愿意延迟退休?——中国城镇中老年人延迟退休意愿的影响因素分析

Who Prefer to Postpone Retirement?——An Analysis on the Determinants of Delay Retirement of the Urban Middle-Elderly in China

延迟退休问题是当前以及未来中国社会发展中的重要问题。利用2011年全国28个省的中国健康与养老追踪调查数据,研究了中国城镇中老年人延迟退休意愿的影响因素及程度,并区分了包含无休止劳动意愿和排除无休止劳动意愿样本的延迟退休意愿。实证结果表明,当考察排除了无休止劳动意愿样本的延迟退休意愿时,受教育水平越高的人越不愿意延迟退休;女性比男性具有更强的延迟退休意愿;具有高级技术职称的人更倾向于延迟退休;健康状况对人们的延迟退休意愿并没有明显的影响。本文的研究结论有助于了解公众的延迟退休意愿,为如何开展退休年龄改革提供了一定的参考价值。

The objective of this paper is to illustrate and examine the delay retirement plans of urban middleaged working people(aged 45 ~60). Based on data from China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey(CHARLS)conducted in 2011,by employing Probit model,the analysis reveals that individual desire for delaying retirement has remarkable relevance to respondents' gender,education,and professional qualification.We have analysis conclusion below:People with higher education levels aren't more inclined to delay retirement;but women have more desire to delay retirement than men. And people with higher professional qualification tend to delay retirement. However,health factor has no significant effect on the willingness of delaying retirement. The limitation of the study is that we cannot examine the difference of retirement plans which may be caused by individual preference. The future study can be strengthened by future CHARLS data. Our research results can provide important reference for ongoing discussion about retirement policy in China. It is necessary for China to lay emphasis on flexibility and inclusiveness and strengthen protection for vulnerable groups when conducting future retirement policy reform.