我国城镇养老保险制度挤进了居民消费吗?——基于城镇的时间序列和面板数据分析

Has Urban Old-Age Insurance Crowded-in Household Consumption in China?——An Empirical Study Based on Time-Series and Panel Data Analysis

养老保险与居民消费/储蓄模式的关系受到广泛关注,虽然学界并未形成定论,但养老保险挤出居民储蓄、挤进消费的观点占据上风,并逐渐使社会保障定位于扩大内需的工具。本文基于消费理论,结合中国养老保险制度从"传统退休养老制度"向"社会养老保险"变迁的历程,构建全国时序和省际面板数据模型,考察我国城镇养老保险制度与城镇居民消费支出的真实动态关系。实证结果表明,1987—2012年养老保险保障水平对城镇居民消费模式产生微弱的挤出效应;转轨后的社会养老保险替代率对居民消费支出的影响并不显著,覆盖率的提高挤出了居民消费。可见,养老保险制度应该回归保障老年收入的本质,而作为有效需求管理的工具则需谨慎使用。

The relationship between pension and household consumption-saving mode has been an issue of long-standing interest among researchers worldwide. Even though no consensus has been reached so far,the crowd-in effect of pension on household consumption prevails and gradually makes social security a management tool of domestic demand. Based on the great transformation of China's old-age insurance from 'traditional retirement system' to 'Old-age social insurance',this paper aims to investigate the dynamic relationship between urban pension system and household consumption behavior by establishing time-series and panel data model. Findings suggest that there is a subtle crowd-out effect of old-age insurance on household consumption from 1987 to 2012,despite difference exists in the transition. After transformation,the effect of pension replacement rate on residential consumption expenditure is not statistically significant;the coverage rate has crowded out residential consumption slightly. The study reveals that the goal of pension should go back to its essential as old-age income security and the tool as domestic-demand management ought to be employed cautiously.