中国邻避冲突结果的影响因素研究——基于40个案例的模糊集定性比较分析

Research on the Affecting Factors of NIMBY Conflict Outcomes in China——Based on 40 NIMBY Conflicts Cases through fsQCA

本文旨在对中国邻避冲突结果的影响因素进行分析,从抗争者视角出发,结合社会运动理论框架提炼条件变量,通过模糊集定性比较分析法(fsQCA)对40个邻避冲突案例进行分析,以探求影响抗争者偏好结果的必要条件及组合情况。研究发现,新媒体联动是使邻避冲突结果导向抗争者偏好的必要条件,框架使用具有一定的解释力,但不是必要条件,可视为充分条件。在条件组合的10条解释路径中,发现两条典型路径,以及媒体互激、城市业主偏好策略、意见领袖作用有限论三条结论。研究结果显示,与以往研究认为"闹解"成为抗争主流策略以及意见领袖发挥重要作用的结论不同的是,模糊集定性比较分析发现城市业主这一群体更倾向于选择非暴力的行动策略,并且意见领袖作用有限。最后重新审视邻避冲突结果,进一步得到政府邻避冲突治理的启示。

The objective of this paper is to conduct system analysis for 40 NIMBY conflicts cases,and to explore the necessary conditions and combinations that affect the outcomes of the combatants’ preferences. This study adopts Fuzzy Set Qualitative Comparative Analysis(fsQCA)methodology,and the explanatory variables are extracted from the combination of social movement theory. The study has found out that prerequisites that NIMBY conflicts leading to protesters’ preferences is new media integration;Framework using can be seen as sufficient condition due to its explanatory power in a certain sense. Among the 10 interpretation paths of the conditional combination,two typical paths and three conclusions,which are media interaction,preferred strategies of urban property owners,and limited role of opinion leaders,are found. However,there are three limitations in the study:First,case sources are mostly secondary sources;Second,the conclusions drawn by fsQCA are not a complete causal interpretation,and the dynamic complete causal interpretation between variables needs to be focused case by case;Third,the method has limited ability to exclude conditional variables with inadequate interpretation. After reviewing the three types of results,the research found that the third type of results after communication and compromise should be the result of the government’s realistic governance pursuit of NIMBY conflict,and the research conclusion of this paper still has reference value. Meanwhile,the research found that being contrary to previous studies,it is different from the opinion—— 'making trouble' is the mainstream strategy and opinion leaders played an important role,fsQCA leads to the conclusion that urban property owners preferred to choose non-violent action strategies,and the role of opinion leaders is limited.