政民互动行为如何影响网络问政效果?——基于“问政泸州”的大数据探索与推论

How Do the Interactions between Government and Public Affect the Effectiveness of Online Interaction Politics?——The Exploration and Inference Based on Big Data of "Wenzheng Luzhou"

网络问政是推进公民政治参与和公共行政变革的重要方式。为了探究政民互动行为对网络问政效果的影响,本文以"问政泸州"及其相关数据为研究对象,运用文本挖掘和机器学习等方法,遵循数据探索推论——统计分析检验的"数据驱动"研究模式,识别和描绘网络问政中公众与政府组织的主体行为特征及话题结构,进而讨论影响网络问政效果的因素。研究发现:公众的参与行为呈现典型的幂率分布并与地区经济发展水平密切相关;公众的参与诉求和话题类别对其满意度有不同的影响,并因依从效应和强化效应而存在路径依赖;公众的反馈意愿与其参与频次正向相关;公众的行为理性、逻辑性、情绪等特征均显著影响公众满意度。本研究实现了对政民互动行为观察维度和理论维度的探索与推论,验证了其对网络问政效果的解释性,能在一定程度上回应社会实践与理论研究对网络问政功能定位和发展优化的关注。

Online Interaction Politics(OIP)is an important way to promote civil political participation and the reform of public administration.The aim of the study is to explore the influences of the interactions between government and public on the effectiveness of OIP.The data from'Wenzheng Luzhou'is selected as a sample,and Text Mining and Machine Learning are used to process data.The study follows the data-driven research paradigm called Data Exploration Inference——Statistical Analysis Test,identifies and depicts the characteristics of subject behavior and topic structures of the public and government organizations in OIP,and then discusses the factors affecting the OIP’s effectiveness.The results show that:(1)The public participation behavior shows a typical power-law distribution and is closely related to the level of regional economic development;(2)Public participation appeals and topic categories have different effects on their satisfaction,and the path dependence exists due to Compliance Effect and Reinforcement Effect;(3)The public willingness to respond is positively related to the frequency of participation;(4)The characteristics of rationality,logicality and emotion of public behavior significantly affect the public satisfaction.Thereupon this study realizes the exploration and inference of the interactions between government and public from observation dimension and theoretical dimension,and verifies its usefulness of interpreting the effect of OIP.It can also respond to a certain degree of the attention to the functional positioning and development optimization of OIP in practice and theoretical research.