同期群视角下中国社会代际流动的模式与变迁——基于9期CGSS数据的多层模型分析

Patterns and Changes of China Social Intergenerational Mobility from the Perspective of Birth Cohorts——A Hierarchical Linear Model Analysis Based on 9 CGSS Datasets

中国社会代际流动的演进规律游离于"开放派"、"固化派"、"稳定派"等多元观点之间。为揭示建国以来我国社会代际流动的模式与变迁,本文以改良后的社会经济指数相对值评价社会地位,进而通过多层模型探究先赋性、后致性、结构性三大因素对子代社会地位获得的影响,及其在出生同期群之间的差异。考虑到先赋性因素的间接效应,采用路径分析进行稳健性检验。研究表明:自身受教育水平是个体取得社会地位的首要途径,这一后致性因素的影响在改革开放后大幅上升,同期党员身份的作用则持续减弱;但在市场化进程中,父代社会地位和父代受教育水平经由子代教育产生的间接效应逐步扩大,非农户籍身份的正面作用也由降转升。可见市场化造就了中国社会代际流动的两面性模式,它既促使社会机会结构愈加开放,又同时带来社会固化封闭的隐忧。总的来看,改革开放至2000年左右社会机会结构开放居于主导,新世纪以来社会固化封闭的趋势日益明显。

The objective of this paper is to reveal patterns and changes of social intergenerational mobility in China since the founding of our country.This paper evaluates social status with modified relative value of so-cial economic index,and then explores influences exerted by three major factors,namely innate,acquired and structural factors,on offspring and their differences between birth cohorts through hierarchical linear models based on 9 CGSS datasets.Robustness tests are also performed by path analysis for considering indirect effects of innate factors.Research results indicate that education level is a primary means for individuals to acquire social status.After the reform and opening-up,the influence of this acquired factor has risen sharply,while the role of CPC membership has continued to decline.However,in the process of marketization,the indirect effect of innate factors such as parents’social position and parents’education level has been gradually expanding by influencing offspring’s education.And the negative effect of rural Hukou status has not been sufficiently weakened.Consequently,marketization process has produced a double-edged model of intergenerational mobility in Chinese society,not only promoting the opening-up of social opportunity structure,but also bringing concern over social stratum closure.In principle,the former effect has dominated from 1978 to around 2000,and thelatter has become increasingly significant since the beginning of 21 st century.However,there are still limitations that need to be improved in this paper:First,this research is primarily aimed at the non-agricultural worker who had a steady job,not including farmer,unemployed people and so on.Second,the initial position and other career experiences are not available,which led to an incomplete path analysis.Third,some research has found that a new social stratification structure based on family assets is emerging,which has attenuated the occupational class-identity in urban society.It remains to be tested whether the influence of innate factors is becoming more significant in the process of pursuing upward mobility in an increasingly asset-dominated society.Based on the reseach,the empirical analysis can help the whole society break the myth of'the uselessness of study',and strengthen the importance of school education,including vocational technology training.It also provides a theoretical foundation for the reform of Hukou system so as to ensure the fairness of public resource allocation.It is not comprehensive to simply summarize the intergenerational mobility pattern of Chinese society from the perspectives of'openness','ossification'and'stability'.Our study reveals the complex mechanisms of the marketization influence on social mobility in modern China.Marketization brings individuals’education level to be the primary way to obtain social status,and yet furnishes elder generation with more resources and abilities,indirectly affecting offspring’s social status.And positive forces always coexist with the negative side.