20世纪国际关系领域的基准时间:历史视角中的三次世界大战

Twentieth Century Benchmark Dates in International Relations:The Three World Wars in Historical Perspective

基准时间是宏观历史过程中的临界点,标志着一连串的重大变革可能会在较长时间内延续。基准时间具有九条标准,可以分为一等基准时间、二等基准时间和三等基准时间。20世纪的基准时间主要包括三次世界大战(一战、二战和冷战),第二次世界大战前后发生的变革比第一次世界大战和冷战前后的变革都要来得更为深远。将20世纪的三个基准时间置于两个世纪的视角中加以审视,可以突出现代性革命,这种视角能够观察20世纪的三个基准时间在正在展开的"全球性变革"这一大的主题下是否会相互联接、是如何相互联接的。20世纪国际政治的关键事件,都应该被视为19世纪"全球性变革"所引发的发展态势和挑战的后期结果。

This paper builds on the author's earlier work on benchmark dates in International Relations.The Introduction summarises this work and explains how this paper extends the analysis from suggestions made,but not developed,in earlier publications.The second section looks in detail at 20 th century benchmark dates centred on the three world wars(First,Second and Cold).It argues that the changes clustered around the Second World War are both deeper and more extensive than those clustered around either the First World War or the Cold War.The third section uses these insights to open-up a macro-historical perspective on the 20 th century,demonstrating the ways in which choices in relation to both time and scale affect the construction of macro-historical perspectives.The fourth section demonstrates the advantages of a two-century perspective on the 20 th century.In the conclusion,it is argued that the key issues that underpinned world politics in the 20 th century are best seen as the downstream consequences of the dynamics and challenges ushered in by the 19 th century 'global transformation'.