国际冲突中调停者的偏向与调停效果

Mediator's Bias and Mediation Effect:A Case Study of Six-Party Talks

在国际调停领域,人们普遍认为,调停者的公正和中立有利于冲突的解决。然而近期学界有新的观点,认为若调停者偏向冲突中的某一方,将更有利于缓解冲突。对这两种相互对立的说法,作者认为调停者的偏向会影响冲突双方的心理预期,进而影响最终结果。若冲突双方中一方有极度不安全感,且处于收益框架,认为谈判会有收获,此时调停者偏向不安全感强的一方的效果要比不偏不倚的调停效果好。若弱势一方处于损失框架,担心参与调停会危害国家生存,此时调停者偏向不安全感强的一方的调停效果未必更好。在朝核危机六方会谈中,中国偏向朝鲜的立场可以使朝鲜信任中国,进而参与六方会谈,显然中国对六方会谈发挥了重大作用。然而,中国的偏向立场虽然使朝鲜乐意参与谈判,但对朝核危机的彻底解决却难以取得成效,由于中国偏向朝鲜,朝鲜认为中国的支持是不会改变的,反而使朝鲜有恃无恐,美朝双方针锋相对,各不相让,最终致使六方会谈难有进展。因此,调停者的偏向立场有利于推动冲突双方参与谈判,但不一定有利于冲突的最终解决。

It is widely believed in the international mediation scholarship that the impartiality and neutrality of mediators are helpful to the resolution of conflicts.However,some of the recent studies indicate that if the bias of the mediator might facilitate the resolution of a conflict.This paper argues that the mediator' s bias affects both sides' expectations and hence the final result.The hypothesis is raised as follows:if both parties of a conflict are not sure whether they will win,and one side is extremely insecure,a biased mediator may produce a better result than an impartial one.However,if both parties of the conflict expect they will win,a biased mediator may not be as successful.According to the case study of six-party talks,it is found in the paper that Chinese bias toward North Korea gains North Korea's trust in China,which is helpful for its partic ipation in the six-party talks.Evidently,therefore,China has played a major role in the six-party talks.However,China's bias toward North Korea also makes it difficult to end the conflict peacefully.North Korea's belief in China's support in its negotiation with America has brought the six-party talks into a deadlock.To sum up,a biased mediator is helpful in engaging both sides in the negotiations,but not in the resolution of the conflict.