危机后全球经济再平衡:趋势及影响

Rebalancing the Global Economy after the Crisis:Trends and Impact

2008年爆发的金融和经济危机是对全球经济失衡发展的强制纠正。危机以来,全球经济再平衡取得明显进展,这主要源于以下途径:汇率调节机制的恢复、国内投资储蓄失衡的调整、政府赤字规模的收缩以及增长模式的转变等。但从长期和结构性因素看,贸易顺差国和逆差国短期内均难以作出根本性政策调整,因而国家间经济关系失衡将成为未来世界经济的常态。由此,在危机后的相当长时间里,全球经济失衡引发的贸易保护主义,以及汇率和资本流动的无序波动带来的风险仍将持续存在和发酵,并将对世界和中国的经济平衡及可持续增长造成长期冲击。

The 2008 global financial and economic crisis was a coercive way of correction global imbalance,reversing the growing trend of global economic imbalances to a certain extent while hitting the world economy hard. Since the crisis,the significant progress made in the adjustments of global economic imbalance has been mainly through the following ways: recovery of the adjustment mechanism of exchange rates,adjustment of the imbalance between domestic investment and savings,reduction of the sizes of government deficits,and transition of growth patterns. But seen from the long- term and structural factors,countries with trade surpluses and deficits are all difficult to make fundamental policy changes in the short term,so unbalanced economic relations between countries will be the normalcy of the world economy in the future. Therefore,trade protectionism triggered by global economic imbalances and the risk of disorderly fluctuations in exchange rates and capital flows faced by global economic growth will continue to persist and ferment in quite a long time after the crisis,and this will make a long- term impact on balanced and sustainable growth of the world and the Chinese economy.