内战终止理论与叙利亚内战政治解决前景

The Theory of Civil War Termination and the Prospect of a Political Solution to Syrian Civil War

本文运用内战终止理论分析叙利亚内战的政治解决前景。通过归纳既有文献,作者提出决定内战终止方式的两大影响机制和四大调控因素:战争前景预期和政治承诺可信度是两大影响机制;实力对比、战场格局、外部势力和内战性质是调控两大机制的四个因素。本文应用内战终止理论框架分析了叙利亚内战的形势发展,认为虽然存在众多阻碍政治解决的因素,但目前出现的一些变化有利于叙利亚危机朝着政治解决的方向发展,并得出叙利亚内战的政治解决之途注定一路坎坷的结论。

The article adopts a theoretical perspective of civil war termination to analyze the prospect of a political settlement of Syrian civil war. Based on the review of relevant literature concerning the issue,the article proposes an analytical framework including two key mechanisms and four regulatory factors. The prospect of military victory and the commitment to a political settlement are two key mechanisms in determining the outcome of civil war termination. Power balance,battlefield situation,external actors,and stakes of civil war exert their impacts on civil war termination through the regulation of the two key mechanisms. With the analytical framework,the article seeks to conduct a tentative analysis on the prospect of a political settlement of Syrian civil war. Based on the recently updated information of Syrian civil war,the four regulatory factors' impacts on the future outcome of Syrian civil war have been examined in the paper. The article argues that despite the existence of several longlasting obstacles for a political settlement,the current changes in Syrian civil war display a positive trend towards a political settlement.