美国学者视野中的南海问题

The South China Sea Issue in the Eyes of American Scholars

美国对南海问题有重大影响,美国学者则影响着美国的南海政策。本文就南海争端中的7个重要问题,对7个美国著名智库的14位专家进行了访谈。他们的看法是:九段线的内涵不清晰、缺乏国际法基础;多边谈判是解决南沙争端的有效途径,中国不应该固守双边谈判;共同开发南沙油气资源是可能的,关键是要先达成协议后再进行;美国会保持在南海的永久存在,但美国不应该主动介入南海争端;过去几年实际上是东盟国家主动邀请美国介入;俄罗斯、日本、欧盟、印度等域外大国对南海争端的影响有限;应该尽快制定"南海行为准则"。未来应对上,美国应该继续保持"不主动介入"的立场,支持声索国通过谈判解决争端。东盟声索国应该保持多边对话与谈判,并促进南海行为准则的谈判。南海问题是中国和平崛起的试金石,中国应避免刺激或激怒东盟声索国的行为,推进功能领域合作,淡化对历史性权利的强调,清晰九段线的内涵。这些观点或者出于误解,或者出于不了解情况,大部分是中国人所不能同意的。但通过了解美国学者对南海问题的看法,可以从中发现有价值的因子,完善中国的南海政策。

The United States has a significant impact on the South China Sea issue,and American scholars affect the U.S.policy towards the South China Sea.This paper reports the results of the interviews of 14 experts at seven well- known U.S.think tanks on seven important issues of the South China Sea disputes.Their views are:the meaning of the nine- dotted line is not clear,and it has no legal basis in international law;multilateral negotiations are an effective way to resolve the disputes in Nansha islands,and China should not insist on bilateral negotiations;to develop oil and gas resources in Nansha jointly is possible,and the key is to reach an agreement first;the United States will maintain its permanent presence in the South China Sea,but it should not be involved on its own initiative in the disputes of the South China Sea;in fact,it was the ASEAN countries who invited the United States to intervene on their own initiative over the past few years;the impact of Russia,Japan,the EU,India and other outside regional powers on the disputes in the South China Sea is limited;a ' Code of Conduct in the South China Sea' should be developed as soon as possible.As to the future response,the United States should continue to maintain the stance of ' not being involved on its own initiative',supporting the claimant countries to resolve the disputes through negotiations;the claimant countries of ASEAN should maintain multilateral dialogues and negotiations,and to promote the implementation of the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea;and the South China Sea is the touchstone of China' s peaceful rise,and China should avoid irritating or provocative actions to the claimant countries of ASEAN,promote cooperation in functional areas,dilute the emphasis on historic rights,and clarify the meaning of the nine- dotted line.Most of these viewpoints,because of either misunderstanding or lacking in knowledge,are not acceptable to the Chinese people.But they help us to understand American views on the South China Sea issue,and find valuable factors to improve China' s policy towards the South China Sea.