秩序失范、中美关系与东亚新秩序

Order Anomie,Sino-US Relations and New Asian Order

近年来,东亚地区出现的最大变化就是秩序失范。东亚的秩序失范在东亚的地缘空间、话语空间、价值空间三个维度上表现得非常明显。造成这种情况的主要原因是美国亚洲同盟体系的负外部性。本文认为,中美构建新型大国关系尽管有很强的积极意义,但是它并不能消除亚洲的秩序失范。构建东亚新秩序,需要中国制定和执行更加灵活的亚洲战略。适合中国的亚洲战略需要具备两个要素,一方面它能够对冲和反制美国的轴辐式同盟体系,使得其对中国崛起的负外部性减至最小。另一方面,这种战略能够把中国在亚洲的威慑转化为威望,使得中国崛起的正外部性增至最大。未来的亚洲秩序格局很可能是"新亚洲"和"旧亚洲"并存的局面。

In recent years,the fundamental change occurring in East Asia is order anomie. The order anomie in East Asia has appeared in three dimensions: geopolitical space,discourse space and value space. The main reason which is responsible for this situation is the negative externality of the Asia- Pacific alliance system led by the US. This paper argues that the building of Sino- US new type of power relations can not eliminate the order anomie in East Asia despite the positive influences of the former. To build new Asian order,China needs to design and implement more flexible strategy in Asia. A suitable Asian strategy for China should include two factors. On the one hand,it should be able to hedge and counter US's spoke- and- hub alliance system,reducing the negative externality on China's rise to the lowest level. On the other hand,it should be able to turn China's deterrence into prestige,increasing the positive externality of China's rise to the highest level. The future picture of the Asian order may be the coexistence of'New Asia'and'Old Asia'.