“部落文化”因素对当前中东政局发展的影响——兼论中国的中东外交方略

The Impact of the Factor of “Tribal Culture”on the Evolution of the Current Political Situation in the Middle East——With Some Thoughts on China's Diplomatic Strategy in the Middle East

中东地区历史发展进程中,以部落民主制为核心的治理制度演变至今天成为当前中东地区政治体制中特殊的"部落文化"模式,并对中东社会发展进程产生了深远影响。而分析研判未来中东政局发展趋势,我们也不得不考虑其中的"部落文化"因素。本文在对中东"部落文化"发展态势进行考察概述的基础上,以利比亚"部落文化"发展为案例进行深度分析,通过对中东地区"部落文化"在中东政局演变发展中可能产生的影响进行研判,得出一些探索性思考,以期能从民族文化传承视角来把握中东政局未来走向,应对中东政局新发展带来的挑战,更好维护地区稳定发展的同时兼顾到中国国家利益。

In the historical process of political evolution in the Middle East,a governance system with tribal democracy as its core has forge ahead with a special pattern of 'tribal culture' in the current political system in the Middle East to date,with a profound impact on the social development process in the Middle East. Any analysis and assessment of the trends in the political situation in the Middle East for the future cannot be done without considering the factor of 'tribal culture'. Based on a summary of exploration of the development trends in the 'tribal culture' in the Middle East,with an in- depth analysis of the case of the 'tribal culture' in Libya,this paper draws some exploratory thoughts by assessing the impact of 'tribal culture' in the Middle East that may have on the political evolution in the Middle East,in order to understand the future direction of the political situation in the Middle East from the perspective of the heritage of national culture,to deal with the challenges posed by the new political development in the Middle East,to maintain regional stability and development better while taking China's national interests into account.