美古关系正常化的前景及影响

Prospects and Impacts of the Normalization of U. S.- Cuba Relations

经过18个月秘密谈判,2014年12月美古宣布开启关系正常化进程。随后双方互动频繁,基本完成关系正常化所需的必要步骤。从长远来看,美古关系缓和顺应历史潮流,符合民意转变和两国各自利益,关系正常化难以逆转。然而,由于有利快速正常化的美国领导人和决策团队因素正在消减、两国深层次分歧难以解决、双方缺乏互信等阻碍,美古两国关系正常化或将从快速推进转入小步前行。与此同时,美古关系的不断发展将在两国、地区以及全球层面造成深远影响。

After 18 months of secret negotiations,the United States and Cuba announced to start the process of the normalization of their relations in December2014. The two sides interacted frequently afterwards,having essentially completed the necessary steps required to normalize their relations. In the long run,the détente of U. S.- Cuba relations is in accordance with the historical trend and in line with the change of the public opinion and their own interests,and the normalization of the relations will be difficult to reverse. However,because the factors of the US leaders and the decision- making team favorable to a rapid normalization are on the decline,the deep- seated differences of the two countries are difficult to resolve,and other obstacles such as a lack of mutual trust,it is possible that the normalization of U. S.- Cuba relations will be small steps forward instead of a rapid advance. At the same time,aconstant development of U. S.- Cuba relations will have a profound impact at bilateral,regional and global level.