中美贸易冲突中欧盟的政策选择——基于贸易自由主义与重商主义的分析

EU's Policy Options in the Sino-US Trade Conflicts——An Analysis Based on Trade Liberalism and Mercantilism

中美贸易冲突是贯穿2018年的国际热点议题之一。虽然冲突有缓和之势,但由于中美之争已超越经济利益范畴,美国对华采取的重商主义贸易政策料将成为未来"主旋律"。在这一背景下,作为中美共同的第一贸易伙伴——欧盟的政策选择变得至关重要。虽然欧盟对华贸易也存在较大逆差,并且贸易保护主义在欧盟内逐渐升温,但其贸易政策的核心仍然是自由主义,因此不会偏向美国一方。与此同时,由于欧盟对美国贸易存在顺差,其偏向中国一方的可能性也不大。未来欧盟贸易政策将更多的表现出中立的状态。

The Sino-US trade conflicts are one of the international hot topics that have run through 2018.Although the conflicts exhibit a trend of abatement,the Sino-US disputes have exceeded the field of economic interests;the US mercantilist trade policy towards China is expected to become the“main theme”in the future.In this context,the policy choices of the EU as the first trading partner of both China and the United States have become crucial.Although the EU's trade with China is running huge deficits as well,and trade protectionism is gradually heating up within the EU,the core of its trade policy is still based on liberalism,so it will not be biased towards the US side.At the same time,due to the EU's trade surplus with the United States,it is also unlikely that it will be biased towards the Chinese side.In the future,EU trade policy will show a more neutral status.