朝核问题与中美核安全博弈

DPRK Nuclear Issue and Sino-US Nuclear Security Game

朝核问题是当今世界的重大难题,对中美关系既是挑战也是机遇。朝核问题愈演愈烈对中美两国的核安全都造成了严重的负面影响。从朝鲜核能力发展初期至如今事实"拥核",中美两国针对朝核问题的核安全博弈日益复杂化,并呈现出竞争与合作并存的特征。中美两国都支持朝鲜半岛的无核化、维护半岛和平稳定以及通过多边合作解决问题,但两国战略目标的优先性不同,即美国最优先的关切利益是朝鲜无核化,而中国的优先考虑目标是朝鲜半岛的和平稳定。这导致中美两国在朝核问题解决方式上的差异和对朝鲜政权态度的不同。同时,中美两国对中国角色的认知也存在矛盾。中美在朝核问题上的核安全博弈导致东北亚的分裂,不利于朝核问题的和平解决,也会影响中美关系的稳定。中美博弈中的合作性是两国在朝核问题上核安全合作的基础,但这种合作也受到博弈中的竞争性和两国结构性矛盾的影响。

The DPRK nuclear issue is a major problem in today’s world,and it is both a challenge and an opportunity for Sino-US relations.Increasingly intensification of the DPRK nuclear issue has had a serious negative impact on the nuclear safety of both China and the United States.From the early stage of North Korea’s nuclear capability development to the fact that it is now'effectively nuclear-armed',the game of nuclear security between China and the United States toward the DPRK nuclear issue has become increasingly complicated,showing the characteristics of coexistence of competition and cooperation.Both China and the United States support the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula,maintain peace and stability on the peninsula,and resolve problems through multilateral cooperation.However,the priorities of the two countries’strategic goals are different,that is,the highest-priority concern of the United States is the denuclearization of North Korea,while China’s top priority is the goal of peace and stability on the Korean peninsula.This has led to the differences between the two countries in terms of their ways of approaching the DPRK nuclear issue and their attitudes toward the North Korean regime.At the same time,there are contradictions in the perceptions of China’s role between China and the United States.The nuclear security game between China and the United States on the DPRK nuclear issue has led to the split of Northeast Asia,which is not conducive to the peaceful resolution of the DPRK nuclear issue,and affects the stability of Sino-US relations.The cooperative side of the Sino-US game is the basis for nuclear security cooperation between the two countries on the DPRK nuclear issue,but this cooperation is also affected by the competitive side of the game and the structural contradictions between the two countries.