政府信任区域差异研究——基于对China Survey 2008数据的双层线性回归分析

On the Regional Differences of Public Trust in Chinese Central Government: A Two-Level Analysis of the China Survey 2008

已有的研究认为个人对政府的信任主要取决于其自身因素,如性别、年龄、受教育程度、家庭收入等。但是通过构建分层次线性回归模型,研究发现个人对中央政府的信任除了受到上述自身因素的影响外,还受到个人所在地的区域性因素的影响。具体说,一个地区的经济发展水平越高、传统文化影响力越弱、信息越发达,则当地的个体可能越倾向于不相信中央政府。如果把上述静态观察纳入动态视角,那么在有效的政策措施出台前,随着国民经济的持续发展,将可能会有越来越多的人调低自己对中央政府的信任。

Previous studies suggest that an individual's trust in government largely depends on his / her socio- demographic characteristics,such as age,gender,education and income. By introducing a hierarchical linear model,the current study reveals that people's trust in the central government is influenced not only by the above- mentioned characteristics,but also by the country's regional factors. More specifically,people in the developed regions,where the effects of traditional culture are weaker and the flow of political information is freer,are more likely to distrust the central government than people in underdeveloped regions with stronger traditional culture and less free political information. Putting the findings of the cross- sectional analysis into a dynamic perspective,it is suggested that the development of local economy may in the long run weaken local residents' trust in the central government. Thus,assuming that the present situation continues,as more and more regions experience economic growth,more and more local residents may develop weaker confidence in the central government.