进口自由化会提升中国出口国内增加值率吗——基于总出口核算框架的重新估计

Will Import Liberalization Increase China's Export Domestic Value Added Ratio——A Re-estimation Based on the Gross Export Accounting Framework

提高出口国内增加值率(DVAR)是实现外贸转型升级和迈向全球价值链(GVC)中高端的重要选择。本文基于国家—部门层面总出口完整分解数据,采用中国加入WTO的拟自然实验,从中观和宏观层面考察了进口自由化对中国出口DVAR的影响和作用机制。研究表明:降低进口关税特别是中间品和原材料关税显著有助于提升出口DVAR。双重差分有效性分析和一系列稳健性分析发现基本结论较为稳健。进一步结果显示:①进口自由化对中低层次GVC地位的影响显著为正;②对高层次GVC地位的影响尚不显著;③与发达经济体开展进口自由化显著提升中间品出口DVAR。机制分析发现,进口自由化通过提高投入品质量而不是数量对出口DVAR产生了正向作用(投入品质量效应);同时进口自由化通过推动行业向高技能劳动力密集型方向转变,提高纯国内要素比重,提高了出口DVAR(要素结构效应)。在贸易保护主义升温的全球大背景下,本研究为支持贸易自由化政策提供了新的经验证据,同时强调了发展中经济体对发达经济体实施中间品进口自由化对迈向全球价值链高端环节的重要性。

Increasing export domestic value-added ratio(DVAR) is an important choice for realizing the transformation and upgrading of foreign trade and moving towards the mid-to-high end of the global value chain(GVC). Based on the complete decomposed data of gross export at the national-sector level, this paper examines the empirical impact and mechanism of import liberalization on China’s export DVAR from the meso and macro levels. Studies have shown that lowering import tariffs, especially for intermediate goods and raw materials,significantly contributes to the increase of export DVAR. DID validity analysis and a series of robustness analysis found that the basic conclusions were relatively robust. Further results show that: First, the impact of import liberalization on the status of low and medium level GVC is significantly positive;Second, the impact on the status of high-level GVC is not significant;Third, import liberalization with developed economies significantly contributes to the promotion of intermediate goods export DVAR. The mechanism analysis found that import liberalization has a positive effect on the export DVAR by improving the quality of input rather than quantity(input quality effect);at the same time, import liberalization promotes the transformation of the industry to highskilled labor-intensive and improves pure domestic factors, consequently increasing the export DVAR(factor structure effect). In the context of the global warming of trade protectionism, this study provides new empirical evidence to support trade liberalization policies, while emphasizing the importance of implementing liberalization of intermediate imports with developed economies for developing economies to moving to the high end of global value chains.