典型城市房价收入比实证研究——基于购房分期还款模型

An Empirical Study of the Housing-price-to-income Ratio of some Typical Cities:On the Basis of Purchase Installment Payment Model

近年来,我国大中城市住房价格剧烈动荡,引发社会广泛关注,政府回应民生出台调控措施抑制住房价格过快上涨,本文通过房价收入比探讨我国城市居民的购房能力和承受能力。通过金融部门对居民购房贷款还款比例的限额构建购房分期还款模型。作者发现适合我国城市普通居民家庭的房价收入比的合理区间为2.9～7.6。一二线城市房价收入比很高,居民购房支付压力大;三线城市房价收入比偏高,有继续上涨趋势;四线城市房价收入比合理。

In recent years housing price has fluctuated violently,which aroused great social concern.The government introduces some regulatory measures to inhibit the growth of housing price. This paper tries to discuss housing affordability of residents, which is based on Housing-price-to-income Ratio(HPIR)and Purchase Installment Payment Model. After the calculation, the authors argues that the reasonable HPIR interval is between 2.9 to 7.6 in China. Currently, the HPIR of First-tier cities and Second-tier cities exceeds the reasonable interval, while the HPIR of Third-tier cities and Fourth-tier cities is at the reasonable interval.