产业规划、政府干预与经济增长——2009年“十大产业振兴规划”研究

Industry Planning,Governmental Intervention and Economic Growth——An Analysis of the Ten Industries Revitalization Plan of 2009

经济史研究表明,政府干预是应对市场失灵、促进产业转型升级的重要力量。在市场体制机制不健全的当下中国,政府干预更具有必要性。但产业政策和政府干预同样存在政府失灵问题。2008年国际金融危机爆发后,作为4万亿投资和10万亿信贷的经济刺激计划的一部分,中国政府推出了"十大产业振兴规划",试图"保增长、促就业",并促进产业转型升级。十大产业振兴规划虽在短期内推动了经济增长,为应对国际危机的冲击、避免经济衰退起到了一定的作用,但政府干预不仅未能促进产业的转型升级,无助于企业竞争力和产业国际地位的提升,结果适得其反,造成了当下更严重的产能过剩。产业规划和政府干预之所以低效,一方面在于产业规划战略定位错误、科学性不足、规划措施效率低、违背市场公平原则,导致政府对市场的干预失灵;另一方面是由于政府干预和产业规划的体制性弊端,包括全能型政府的角色错位和越位,对产业的干预主观随意,政府直接介入微观经济领域,经营企业,市场化改革不彻底以及地方政府GDP至上主义的恶性竞争。要提升产业规划的科学性和有效性,优化政府干预,必须对政府与市场、政府与企业的关系作必要的调整,全面推进市场化改革,完善市场制度,重塑政府角色,推进政府转型,改革财税体制,调整央地关系和利益格局,完善产业规划的体制环境。

Governmental intervention is an important method for correcting market failure and promoting industrial transformation.It is even more important in a dysfunctional market system such as that in contemporary China.The flip side of the story,however,is that intervention itself may sometimes go wrong,causing what is typically known as the government failure.After the2008 global financial crisis,Chinas central government threw 4trillion investment package and 10 trillion credit scheme to counter balance the effect of the financial crisis.As part of this economic stimulus plan,the Central Government made a Ten Industries Revitalization Plan(TIRP)to maintain economic growth,promote employment and advance industrial transformation and upgrade.This study evaluates the effect of this Ten Industry Revitalization Plan.The authors argue that while TIRP had short term effect in promoting economic growth and counter balance the down turn effect of global financial crisis,it failed to promote industrial upgrade and transformation.On the contrary,it led to more serious over production and reinforced the older industrial structure.Strategic error,lack of scientific studies,low level of planning implementation,violation of fair market principles were the major reasons of such failures.In order that governmental invention becomes effective,scientific industrial planning,readjustment of the relationship between market,government,and enterprises,readjustment of the relationship between local and central government,and overall governmental reform have to be in place.