中国养老机构政策的发展路径和问题——基于文本分析和国际比较的实证研究

The Development Path and Problems of China's Policy on Homes of Aged:An Empirical Study based on Text Analysis and International Comparison

运用辩证法和有限理性模型,以文本分析和国际比较的方法,对中国民政部1986—2016年发布的31份年报和万方数据知识服务平台发布的1988—2017年30年间的"法规"类文本资料中,有关"敬老院管理"和"养老机构"的189个政策文本,以及新加坡国会1988年制定的《养老机构法案》进行了分析比较研究,获得的主要结论是:(1)对"有限理性模型"的拓展:在多层级政府系统中,对同一现象的有限认知和满意解在被最高级政府确认前,会在非最高级政府之间扩散,直到最高级政府确认并推出统一的满意解。(2)中国养老机构政策的发展主要经历了三个阶段:平静期、巨浪期、稳定发展期。(3)目前中国对养老机构管理的根本性缺失就是:缺乏立法。基于此提出了相关的建议。

This paper applies the dialectical theory and the bounded rationality model,and the text analysis and international comparison methods to analyse the 31 annual reports published by the Ministry of Civil Affairs of China and the 189 policies on "management of nursing homes"and"homes of aged"published by Wanfang data knowledge service platform during the 30 years from1988 to 2017 in the category of"regulations",and the"Homes of Aged Act"enacted by the Singapore Congress in 1988.The research finds:(1)Extension of the"Bounded Rationality Model":In a multi-level government system,the bounded awareness and satisfied-solutions to the same phenomenon will be spread among non-top-level governments before they are confirmed by the top-level government until the top-level government confirms them and issues a unified and satisfied-solution.(2)The development of China's policy on homes of aged has undergone three major stages:the quiet period,the giant-wave period,and the stable development period.(3)At present,the problem of China's management of homes of aged is:lack of legislation.Based on this,the paper proposes related suggestions.