基于模糊综合评价的兰州市水生态安全指标体系研究

Research on Water Ecological Security Index System in Lanzhou Based Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

在对影响城市地区的水生态安全因素深入分析的基础上,以具有代表性的北京、西安、西宁和兰州4个城市为例,从水资源条件与开发利用、水环境与水生态和涉水有关的社会经济等方面,统一选取影响水生态安全的38项指标,构建水生态安全评价指标体系。然后,利用模糊系统分析方法,对指标体系进行优化,最终建立以25项指标组成的兰州市水生态安全评价体系,并用优化后的指标体系对兰州市2009—2013年水生态安全状况进行模糊综合定量评价,找出最主要影响因素。评价结果表明:兰州市水生态安全状况总体趋于好转,但仍受人类生产、生活等活动的影响,部分因素还在威胁兰州市水生态的安全,应引起城建和管理部门重视。最后,对兰州市水生态安全建设方面提出了几点针对性的建议。

On the basis of thorough research on the impact factors of urban areas water ecological security situation,the authors selected 38 indexes from the water resource conditions and development,the water environment and water ecology,other social economic factors related to water from Beijing,Xi'an,Lanzhou and Xining to construct preliminary water ecological security evaluation index system,then optimized the index system by the method of fuzzy system analysis,finally established a water ecological security evaluation system consisting of 25 indexes. The optimized index system was used to conduct the water ecological security situation fuzzy comprehensive evaluate of Lanzhou from 2009 to 2013. The evaluation result showed the main influence factors,the water ecological security situation in Lanzhou tends to be better,but some factors still greatly threaten the water ecological security influenced by the human production and living,which should be paid attention during urban construction and management. Finally some pertinent suggestions are put forward for the water ecological security construction of Lanzhou city. The above research provides the theoretical guidance for regional economic development and water ecological security intercoordination and a generally applicable study train of thought for the quantitative evaluation water ecological security in city.