内蒙古森林雪灾风险评估与区划

Assessment and Division of Forest Snow Disaster Risk in Inner Mongolia

基于自然灾害风险理论,选取森林雪灾相关的气象、林业、基础地理信息和社会经济等数据,从致灾因子危险性、承灾体易损性、孕灾环境敏感性和防灾减灾能力4个方面综合评估内蒙古森林雪灾风险程度的地区差异,利用加权综合评分法、层次分析法建立并计算森林雪灾综合风险评估指标体系及指数,构建出内蒙古森林雪灾风险区划模型。内蒙古森林雪灾高风险区、次高风险区分别占全部森林雪灾风险区的77. 18%、0. 05%,且均位于内蒙古东北部的呼伦贝尔市。中等风险区占全部森林雪灾风险区的6. 01%,主要位于锡林郭勒盟、呼伦贝尔市、赤峰市及兴安盟,分别占中等风险区总面积的0. 61%、36. 50%、9. 11%和5. 99%;次低风险区和低风险区占全部森林雪灾风险区的16. 76%,主要位于阿拉善盟、鄂尔多斯市、兴安盟等地。内蒙古森林雪灾风险呈现自东北向西南逐渐减轻的趋势,与森林、积雪空间分布规律基本一致。

The meteorological and forestry data,basic geographic information and socio-economic data related to forest snow disasters were selected to comprehensively assess the regional difference of snowstorm risk in Inner Mongolia,including the disastrous factors and vulnerability,environmental sensitivity to snow disasters,and snow disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities based on the theory of natural disaster risk.The weighted comprehensive scoring method and analytic hierarchy process(AHP)were used to establish a comprehensive assessment index system of forest snow disaster risk and to construct a zoning model of forest snow disaster risk in Inner Mongolia.The results indicated that the proportions of the areas with high and sub-high risk of forest snow disasters were77.18%and 0.05%,respectively,and the areas were mainly located in Hulun Buir City.The proportion of the areas with medium risk accounted for 6.01%of the total area of forest snow disaster risk,they were mainly distributed in Xilin Gol League,Hulun Buir City,Chifeng City and Xing’an League,and their proportions were 0.61%,36.50%,9.11%and 5.99%,respectively.The proportion of the areas with sub-low and low snow disaster risk was 16.76%of the whole risk area,and they were mainly distributed in Alxa League,Erdos City,Xing’an League and other places.The forest snow disaster risk in Inner Mongolia decreases gradually from the northeast to the southwest,and it is basically consistent with the spatial distribution of forest and snow cover.