城市规划中人口规模预测方法思索

The Thinking Of The Methods Of Population Projection In Urban Planning

既往关于城市规划中人口规模预测的研究多以实证分析及方法比较为主,缺少系统性的关于预测原则、预测思想及预测方法适用性的总结与评价。研究在对近年来城市人口规模预测案例进行分析总结的基础上,归纳出人口规模预测的主要原则;在此基础上,对城市规划中人口规模预测的主要思想进行分类,分别为以资源环境承载力作为人口规模发展的阈值的预测思想、以确定人口规模增长率为依据的预测思想、以人口规模与社会经济之间的相关性为依据的预测思想、以数理逻辑为依据的预测思想以及一些涉及到系统论的预测思想,并对每种预测思想中涉及的方法的适用性进行评价。

Previous researches on the population projection in urban planning are mainly about empirical analysis and method comparison, lacking of systemic summary and evaluation of the principle, the ideology and the applicability of the methods of population projection. This paper is based on the analysis and summary of population projection cases in recent years, generalizing the main principle of population projection, including qualitative analysis is primary, quantitative calculation is supplemented, using a variety of methods in order to minimize errors, sub-period and sub-programs projection and so on. Then classifying the main ideologies of population projection, including the ideology of using resources and environment carrying capacity as the threshold of population scale, setting the growth rate of population, using the correlation between population scale and socio-economic as the basis of projection, based on mathematical logics, and some ideology related to systems theory. At last, assessing the applicability of the methods of every ideology.