珠三角城市群地域运输效率测度与规划建议

Regional Transportation Efficiency Evaluation and Planning Policy Response in Zhujiang Delta Urban Agglomeration

地域运输效率是优化空间运输资源配置的关键表征指标。文章依据1980年以来多期综合交通数据、社会经济统计数据,利用GIS空间分析、DEA模型和Tobit回归模型,构建基于综合经济潜能的综合运输效率测度指标体系,对珠三角地区综合运输效率阶段性演进特征与模式进行了系统分析。结果表明:珠三角地区地域运输效率显著提升,地域运输效率空间格局呈现出"大集聚、小分散"分布特征。结合不同阶段不同特征及存在问题,文章提出优化区域内交通网络组织,支撑城市区域多中心网络化发展;优化城际和市内交通组织,加强粤港澳大湾区各城市中心的联系;优化资源配置、调整交通基础设施建设的投资规模和结构,建立协同发展机制、实现交通资源合理配置等规划建议。

Transportation efficiency is a key index of spatial transportation configuration level. Based on data of comprehensive transportation and socio-economy since 1980, the paper uses GIS spatial regression, DEA model, and Tobit model, establishes a system of indices for the evaluation of transportation efficiency, and makes an analysis of the evolution, character, and mode of comprehensive transportation efficiency in Zhujiang Delta region. It reveals that transportation efficiency in the Delta region has improved dramatically, with 'general concentration, partial dispersion' spatial characters. With respect to different characters and problems, the paper suggests improving transportation network to support multi-centric regional development;improving inter city and inner city transport organization to strengthen connection within Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao great bay area;improving resource configuration, adjusting infrastructural development, investment and structure to establish a coordination development mechanism.