水资源对粮食生产的阻尼效应研究——基于山东2001-2016年数据的计量检验

Research on growth drag of water resources on grain production——Metrological inspection based on statistical data from 2001 to 2016 in Shandong

采用2001-2016年山东面板数据,构建粮食生产水资源阻尼系数函数,对山东省及各市区的粮食生产水资源阻尼效应进行了测度,并运用空间计量分析方法研究了其空间布局特征。结果表明:对于粮食产出来讲,土地和资本的弹性大于劳动力和水资源,政策虚拟变量弹性为正,表明节水政策对粮食产出具有推动作用。水资源对山东粮食生产具有一定阻尼效应,阻尼系数为0.00022,即由于水资源约束,每年粮食产出增长比上一年降低0.022%,且研究期内粮食生产水资源阻尼系数呈现递减收敛趋势。各市粮食生产水资源阻尼系数存在明显差异,粮食生产越集中的地区水资源阻尼效应越显著,受自然条件和经济社会因素影响水资源阻尼系数具有典型的区域集聚特征,应根据区域水资源约束情况,采取不同措施,缓解水资源对粮食生产的约束,实现粮食安全与水安全"协同共赢"。

Water resource is an important factor in grain production.The research measured the growth drag of water resources in grain production based on the panel data of 2001-2016 years in Shandong.The influencing factors and spatial agglomeration characteristics of growth resistance were also analyzed.The aim of the research is to provide reference for achieving'win-win cooperation'between grain production and water resources.Research showed that the elasticity of land and capital was greater than that of labor and water resources for the variable value of grain output.The elasticity of policy dummy variables was positive,indicating that water-saving policy had a positive effect on grain output.Water resources showed growth drag on grain production in Shandong,with a growth drag of 0.00022%.Due to water constraints,annual grain output growth was 0.022%lower than that of the previous year.The growth drag had shown a decreasing trend.The water resources growth drag in major grain producing cities was remarkable.The growth drag had significant spatial agglomeration characteristics by global autocorrelation and local autocorrelation measuring.Research shows that water resources play a restrictive role in grain production.Different measures should be taken to reduce the restriction of water resources on food production by regional water resources drag.