基于系统动力学的资源型城市转型模式实证研究——以鄂尔多斯为例

Study on transformation mode of resources-based cities based on SD:A case of Ordos

资源型城市的转型是由经济、资源、环境与社会协同构成的系统工程,转型模式复杂多样。不同的转型模式会直接影响城市转型效果,因此对转型模式的选择以及其合理性进行验证具有重要的理论与现实意义。基于此,文中针对资源型城市转型的复杂性,将系统动力学模型应用于资源型城市的转型模式研究中,并以鄂尔多斯为例,评价其转型模式与转型效果,以期为其他资源型城市的转型研究提供经验与借鉴。研究通过构建鄂尔多斯自然发展模式、农牧业重点、工业重点、第三产业重点、环境保护和循环协调共六种转型模式,最终确认循环协调发展模式能够实现城市经济发展的去自然资源化,从而实现城市经济社会发展与资源系统和环境系统耦合的可持续发展目标。

The transformation of resource-based cities is a systematic project composed of economy,resources,environment and society.The transformation modes are complex and varied.Different transformation modes will directly affect the efficiency of urban transformation.Based on this,in view of the complexity of the transformation of resource-based cities,we applied the system dynamics model to the study the transformation model of resource-based cities by taking Ordos as an example,explored the transformation model and evaluated the transformation effect for Ordos in order to provide reference for other resource-based cities.The transformation research of resource-based cities provides experience and reference.We studied six transformation modes which are including natural development,agriculture,industry,tertiary industry,environmental protection and circular coordination in Ordos,and finally confirmed that the model of circular coordinated development can realize the de-naturalization of economic development and achieve the sustainable development goal of coupling urban economic development with resources system and environment system.