气候变化背景下未来中国气候生产潜力时空动态格局

Temporal-spatio dynamic pattern of climatic potential production under the background of climate change in the future in China

基于气温及降水数据,运用Thornthwaite Memorial模型,分析了气候变化背景下中国未来(2021-2099年)RCP4.5和RCP8.5气候情景相对于基准期(1986-2005年)气候生产潜力的时空分布及动态变化特征。结果表明:基准期、未来RCP4.5及RCP8.5情景下中国气候生产潜力(CPP)年均值分别为754.14、878.48、920.34g/(m^2·a)。未来CPP呈显著增加趋势,但并未发生突变。其中,RCP4.5情景下年均增加124.34g/(m^2·a),只21世纪前半叶显著增加;RCP8.5情景下年均增加166.20g/(m^2·a),21世纪前半、后半叶均显著增加,且后半叶增幅更大。未来RCP4.5、RCP8.5情景下中国CPP呈年代际递增趋势,20年代最低,分别为841.90、849.94g/(m^2·a),90年代最高,分别为894.43、1001.44g/(m^2·a);随着年代增加距平百分率由负到正,增幅逐渐变大。在空间上CPP总体呈现出从西北向东南逐渐递增的带状分布。未来CPP在大部分区域都增加,增幅在北部大于南部,大部分地区增幅在300g/(m^2·a)以下,只有西北部分地区增幅超过600g/(m^2·a),最高达14倍。在西、南部少数地区,未来CPP将下降,最大降幅为293g/(m^2·a)(93%)。该研究对于未来合理利用气候资源、科学应对气候变化、实施可持续发展战略具有一定的指导意义。

Climatic potential productivity(CPP)from 1986 to 2005 was taken as a baseline period and that over 2021-2099 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios was evaluated by Thornthwaite Memorial model by using annual temperature and precipitation data,in order to understand the temporal-spatio dynamic pattern and reveal the impact of climate change in the future in China.The results show that,the mean annual average CPP were 754.14,878.48,and 920.34 g/(m^2·a),respectively,for baseline period and under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.CPP increased significantly from 2021 to 2099,but there was no mutation.Under RCP4.5 scenario,CPP increased significantly in the first half of the 21 st century,but not significantly in the latter half,with an average increase of 124.34 g/(m^2·a).Under RCP8.5 scenario,there was a significant increase both in the first half and in the latter half of the 21 st century,with an average increase of 166.20 g/(m^2·a).CPP increased age by age from the perspective of interdecadal scale.It was the lowest of 841.90,849.94 g/(m^2·a)in 2020 s and the highest of 894.43,1001.44 g/(m^2·a)in 2090 s under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.Anomalous percentage of CPP increased from negative to positive,and the growth rate increased gradually over the decades.CPP varied in different regions with a zonal distribution of gradually increasing from northwest to southeast China.It increased in most areas of China,with relatively higher rising amplitude in north than in south.The rising amplitude was lower than 300 g/(m^2·a)in most areas,and was only higher than 600 g/(m^2·a)in some areas of Northwest China,with a maximum increase of 14 times.CPP decreased in some areas in south and west China,with the highest decreasing amplitude of 293 g/(m^2·a)(a decrease of 93%).This study has some guiding significance for adapting to climate change,utilizing climate resources rationally,and implementing the sustainable development strategy.