京津冀地区经济增长对工业用水的脱钩效应及其驱动因素研究

Decoupling effect between economic growth and industrial water use and its driving factors in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

量化分析经济增长与工业用水之间的脱钩状态及其驱动效应对缓解区域工业水资源供需矛盾具有重要意义。利用2001年至2017年省际面板数据,从时间与空间、整体与局部等不同视角对京津冀地区经济增长对工业用水的脱钩状态及其驱动因素进行分析,结果表明:从总体上看,研究期内京津冀地区经济增长对工业用水的脱钩水平较高且脱钩状态稳定;从区域差异来看,京津冀三地经济增长对工业用水的脱钩状态存在显著的空间差异,其中北京脱钩状态最优,河北次之,而天津则具有较大的改进空间;从驱动因素来看,技术效应是决定京津冀地区经济增长与工业用水脱钩状态的关键因素,同时也是推动经济增长对工业用水消耗实现背离的核心驱动力,而结构效应对京津冀地区经济增长与工业用水实现脱钩的驱动作用有待提升。在此基础上尝试对京津冀地区工业节水路径展开探讨。

In order to relieve the contradiction between the regional industrial water resources supply and demand,it is significant to quantitative analyze the decoupling state and driving factors between economic growth and industrial water use.Based on the provincial panel data from 2000 to 2016,we analyzed the decoupling state between economic growth and industrial water use and its driving factors in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from different perspectives between time and space,interior and exterior,whole and part.According to the results:On the whole,during the research period,the decoupling level of economic growth and industrial water consumption was relatively high and their decoupling states were stable in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.From the perspective of regional differences,there were significant spatial differences existed in decoupling state of economic growth and industrial water use among Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei.The decoupling state of Beijing was the best,followed by Hebei,while Tianjin had a relatively large room to improve.From the perspective of driving factors,technological effect was the key factor determining the decoupling state between economic growth and industrial water use,which was also the core driving effect of realizing the deviation between economic growth and Industrial water use.Nevertheless,there is still room for the structural effect to improve its driving effect of the decoupling between economic growth and industrial water use in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.Based on the research results,we discussed the industrial water-saving path in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.