中国农业碳排放减排成效评估、目标重构与路径优化研究

Research on effectiveness evaluation, target reconstruction and path optimization of agricultural carbon emission reduction in China

文中在测度我国及31个省(市、自治区)农业碳排量的基础上,对其碳减排成效进行了综合评估,进而完成了对减排'后进地区'的目标重构与路径优化。研究结果表明:1)从国家层面来看,农业生产部门有能力实现政府所承诺的预期碳减排目标,但具体到各省区又表现出明显的差异性;基于相对目标与绝对目标的实际完成情况,利用矩阵构建可将31个地区划分为9种类型。2)对于减排较为困难的13个地区,在遵循可行性与公平性原则的基础上,科学调整了各自的农业碳减排目标并优化了其实践路径。其中,贵州、山西等4地要求2020年农业碳排放强度较2005年减少40%;安徽、江西等4地要求2025年农业碳排放强度较2005年减少45%;湖南、宁夏等5地要求2030年农业碳排放强度较2005年减少50%。

On the basis of calculating the agricultural carbon emissions of China and 31 provinces,we comprehensively evaluated the carbon emission reduction effect,and then completed the goal reconstruction and path optimization for the areas where emission reduction was laggard.The results show that:(1)From the national level,the agricultural production department has the ability to achieve the expected carbon emission reduction targets promised by the government,but there are obvious differences in specific provinces and autonomous regions.Based on the actual completion of relative and absolute targets,31 regions can be divided into 9 types by matrix construction.(2)For the 13 regions where emission reduction is more difficult,their respective agricultural carbon emission reduction targets have been scientifically adjusted and their practical paths have been optimized on the basis of following the principles of feasibility and fairness.Among them,Guizhou,Shanxi and other three places require 40%reduction in agricultural carbon emission intensity by 2020 compared with 2005.Anhui,Jiangxi and other four places require 45%reduction in agricultural carbon emission intensity in 2025 compared with 2005.Hunan,Ningxia and other four places require 50%reduction in agricultural carbon emission intensity in 2030 compared with 2005.